NBA Draft: Lottery Predictions

#1. Portland: Greg Oden
If you're Portland, you can't pass up a franchise center. That's exactly what Oden is; there's not much doubt about it. His defense is already NBA-caliber (see: the Florida game) and his size and athleticism basically hand him 10 boards right away. Sure, his offensive game is not refined like Duncan's, but once his wrist heals and he continues to work on it, what would lead anyone to believe that he won't average 22 a night? This kid's got the right attitude; he won't flop.

#2. Seattle: Kevin Durant
Is it possible Durant is even better than he was in college? Can he dominate even more in a situation where his coach realizes it's probably a good idea to let him touch the ball in the last two minutes, seeing as how no one can stop him? No one's ever really seen a kid like KD. He's not a three, he's not a four and he's not a C. He's not the next Jordon, Bird, Dirk or Barkley. He kind of looks like a Shaun Marion with a better shot. But then again he doesn't really look like Marion either. Is there any Tayshaun Prince in him, any Tim Thomas, any T-Mac? Just by looking at what he did at Texas, there's no way he's not gonna put up 24 and 9 a night, minimum. It's just all the questions of exactly what he is that put Durant below Oden. Portland knows what they're getting in Oden, but Seattle may end up getting something even better than that - they just can't be quite as sure.

#3. Atlanta: Al Hortford
The Hawks need a point guard. They've needed a point guard for years. But who's best amongst Conley, Crittenton or Law? And are any of them going to be the Williams or Paul that the Hawks needed/need? Because one of those three PG's will be around at 11, and because I don't think any of them will be as good as Paul or Williams (maaaaaybe Conley Jr. will be) the Hawks should take either the most NBA-ready or the best available player left on the board. Luckily for them, Al Hortford is both of those guys. Pencil in Al for 14 and 9 next season.

#4. Memphis: Mike Conley Jr
The poor Grizz really got burned by the ping pong balls. They really needed Oden or Durant to help out this roster. A roster where Hakim Warrik is the third-best player. Also, Gasol is going to be traded in all likelihood and they're not going to be any good any time soon. Because of this - and because Chucky Atkins is currently their starting point guard - the Grizzlies should nab Mike Conley Jr. He is a great athlete who has a chance to develop into a Chris Paul-type. Memphis has the time to wait for either him or Yi to develop, but I think they'd be better served with a good point guard than with a good wing forward in three years, so they should go with Conley Jr. Plus, he's got this in this blood.

#5. Boston: Yi Jianlian
It doesn't look like Kobe, KG, or Marion are coming to Boston. Therefore, it looks like Paul Pierce will soon be leaving Boston. The C's played everything to get Oden or Durant. They didn't. Now, they really are that screwed. It's time to keep bottoming out and hope for some luck or the number 1 next year. The Celts should take Yi here because he's got the most upside (potentially another Dirk, if that's still a good thing) of anyone left on the board. His defense is atrocious and he's soft, but time and effort can solve those problems. He's a great athlete who needs a couple years and the C's sure have a couple of years to wait for him.

#6 Milwaukee: Jeff Green
The Bucks have Bogut and Villanueva, Michael Redd, and they can re-sign Mo Williams. They're not number 6 pick bad; more, they're just really good tankers. Best case scenario, Conley Jr. falls to them and they let Williams walk in order to sign someone who better fits their needs. Unforetunately, I don't think Mike Jr will be around at 6. The Bucks shouldn't wait for Wright or even Noah to develop. They also don't really need a big man like Hawes. Therefore, their best options are probably Brewer, Green and Stuckey. I kind of like Jeff Green going here to the Bucks, and then I kind of like them lining up in the 7th or 8th playoff spot next year.

#7 Minnesota: Brandon Wright
It looks like KG ain't going to Boston, but he is going somewhere (PHX?). Frankly the Wolves should expect to be back here again next year so they might as well take a guy who's got the upside to be a steal at 7, but needs a couple years yet to fully develop. Brandon Wright fits the bill for Minnesota.

#8 Charlotte: Joakim Noah
The Bobcats are still a little ways away from contention, even in the East. Still, they've got a nice core of college stars and hard workers. Noah will be another one. As goofy as he is, Joakim is a very good athlete. He clearly needs more strength and overall refinement is his game, but then again doesn't every prospect? Sure he can't shoot a lick, but Thorton and Brewer (Charlotte's best alternatives here at 8) aren't exactly Michael Redd's either. Noah is a guy who was supposed to go number 1 overall last year - did he really get so much worse that he's now a bad pick at number eight? No. Charlotte should grab Joakim and meet everyone back here again next year, same time, same place.

#9 Chicago: Spencer Hawes
The Bulls are probably upset that Noah isn't still on the board here at 9. They shouldn't be too upset. Noah being gone saves them from drafting yet another defense/hustle guy that can't shoot. Defense/hustle guys are what Scott Skiles likes, but he should try out those 7-ft low-post scorers too, they're pretty cool. Spencer Hawes fills Chicago's needs. Sometimes the draft isn't that hard.

#10 Sacramento: Corey Brewer
Sacramento is an awfully bad team to be picking this low. There's hope for next year in most of these lottery cities: Portland, Seattle, Milwaukee, Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, LA, even Atlanta, but I don't see much reason for hope in Sacramento. They're gonna be in the top 3 next year. The Kings really could have used a guy with star potential, even one who they would have had to wait for, but unforetunatley by 10 they're just about all gone. This team is in rough shape and they've got to be just picking "best available," but the best player available at 10 looks like it might be Corey Brewer. Brewer is long, tough, athletic and he can play excellent defense, but he's not going to the All-Star game any time soon. He's got a decent shot, but no penetration game and not enough strength for an NBA post-up game. At best, he perfects his shot and develops into a Bruce Bowen/Tayshaun Prince mix. Sac-town was hoping for something more than that in this draft.

#11 Altanta: Javaris Crittenton
Atlanta can pass on Conley Jr. because of Crittenton and Law. Of the two, Crittenton's ceiling is probably a bit higher because he's more athletic. The Hawks will be better next year, but still only on the playoff bubble, so there's no need to rush for Acie Law and his more NBA-ready game. Trading this pick for a veteran point guard is not a bad idea (Atkins or Knight, or someone else maybe?). The Hawks probably wish they could turn back the clock and grab Williams or Paul, but they can't. There's no Williams or Paul in this draft, but there is a Hortford. Atlanta should just take Al and then Crittenton and not make another mistake by trying to fix past mistakes.

#12 Philadelpia: Al Thorton
The Sixers were about the only lottery-bound team that played hard, and played well, down the stretch last year. Yes that caused them to miss out on a better prospect, but what it allowed them to do was develop the team they already have. The NBA isn't a fantasy league where you can round up a bunch of talents and expect to get a bunch of wins (listening, Isiah?). You've got to develop a team and get the most out of guys, "coach 'em up". The Sixers will have the playoffs in their sights with the addition of SF Al Thorton, a polished scorer and hard worker (but unfortunately not a star).

#13 New Orleans: Rodney Stuckey
New Orleans has a bunch of guys kind of like him, but I still like Rodney Stuckey for the Hornets. He's a better version of Desmond Mason - and that's not bad. They could use a big man, but any of the guys left would be reaches here. They could trade this pick to move down or to acquire a veteran "better than Desmon Mason" player.

#14 LA Clippers: Acie Law III
Shaun Livingston went from "next great LA point guard" to "that guy from the horrible YouTube video who blew out his knee" in about two seconds (believe me, the video is really not something that anyone needs to watch). Sam Cassell went from "Sam's back" to "Sam's old" in about a year. (Here's a funny video of Cassell "highlights." A little bit creepy, perhaps? But then again, it is Sam Cassell.) That leaves the Clipps with no one to man the point. Enter Acie Law III. Sure, he's not a great athlete and his game doesn't really scream "NBA star" to anyone, but I loved him in college and ballsy winners like him always seem to find a way to make it.


-MP


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