Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Boston Celtics: Lottery Nightmare

Hey everyone,
I come to you as a Celtics fan devastated one day after the 2007 NBA draft did us no favors.
Unfortunaley, I think the number 5 pick sets up the C's for at least 3 more years of 30 win-purgatory. Frankly, I think we're screwed for the foreseeable future. I'll break down the team roster to illustrate my point.

Pierce - Paul's our star, but how long does he want to be that? He's going to be 30 next season and is no longer a young man. Pierce is clearly fed up with the youth movement and I think he will ask to be traded within the year. Even if the Celtics accommodate him, they'll never get an even value return - star player trades never do (look at the Iverson and Shaq deals). By the time we can hope to be anything close to competitive towards a championship, Paul will be long gone. Frankly in terms of long range planning, Pierce is a non-factor.

Jefferson - Al Jeff is our guy ... right? Well, maybe. Al Jeff is a 17 and 10 career guy. A heck of a player no doubt, but frankly, not a perennial All-Star. He's a third option on a championship-caliber team.

Szczerbiak - Wally is a nice player yet he is grossly overpaid. Wally might give us 14 a night ( if he's healthy, which is a big if by the way) but that 14 is not worth the money we are paying him. An Allan Houston Exemption rule candidate, perhaps?

West - Really, a replacement level back-up point guard. A nice guy to have on a team, but no one to build a roster around.

Gomes - Gomes is a solid player. Ryan will put up 15 and 6 if he gets 30 minutes a night. He's our third best player right now. But is that a good thing?

Allen - Tony Allen was finally coming into his own before he got hurt (dunking after the wistle, no less). Allen is plus defender and even developed some offensive game lately. But, he's a guy who's strength is athleticism and that athelticism is compromised by his knee injury. I don't think we can count on Tony be anything more than a bench player for the foreseeable future.

Green - Gerald, Gerald, Gerald. A great kid and a great athelete (slam dunk champ, yeah!), but is he an NBA player? Is this kid going to be a legitimate NBA wing-man? I can't say I think so. Frankly, he's one of the worst defenders in the NBA and doesen't have much clue as to what to do on the court. Still, he's only 21 and since he won't get even equal value in any trade for him he's probably ours to live and die by, so we've at least got to give him a chance.

Rondo - Rondo - whom Ainge claims is better than any of the PGs coming out this year (uhh, riiight) - is a solid player around which we can build. Rondo is a heck of an athlete and is a plus defender with great quickness, length and desire. His weakness too, is a fixable one: shooting. For example, look at how a guy like Bruce Bowen has made himself into a shooter when he started out as a defnese-only brick-layer. Rondo can do it if he's got the will. I think he does. I think Rajon can play, and even start, in this league. That said, he will never be a perennial All-Star. He's a starter on a playoff team, but not a star. He's someone we can live with as a winner, not someone who will make us a winner.

Ray - Uh 3-point shot, I guess. C'mon this guy will be out of the league in three years. A nobody.

Telfair - Off the team due to behavioral transgressions. Just think of the Seb Telfair era in this way: would you trade him for Lafrenz ( and his contract) and ROY Brandon Roy, today? Uh, I think so. Great move , Danny.

Pinkney - D-Leaguer.

Perkins - Perk is a high schooler, so we have to give him time to develop. Umm, is four years enough time? A hard worker and a decent rebounder and defender, but in the end, I hate to say it, Perk is an NBA nobody.

Powe - Second round steal? Maybe. But we have to take into consideration that he was an 11 minute-per-game player on a 24-win team. Does that sound like anyone who will lead be an important part of a championship team? Nope.

Scalabrine - Maybe the whitest dude in the NBA, but actually maybe not the worst. Scala is goofy and can't create his own shot, but he does play hard and is fundamentally sound. He could be an 8th man on a playoff team. Though he may be a bit overpaid, he's actually a useful player on this team. (Ouch.)

Ratliff - His back gave out long ago making his expiring contract his only value anymore. It is, however, a value trading chip, but in itself is not a source of wins on the court, per say.

Olowokandi - Former number 1 overall out of Pacific. I think 8 years down the line it's safe to say it: He's not good! The Kandi-Man will probably be gone before next season and has no significant future with the team.

#5 Draft Pick - The Celts best options are Wright, Green, Yi, Hortford, Noah and Brewer. Brandon Wright is a career 14 and 7-er: an athlete, but not someone who will put you over top (and probably not someone that will even be avaible at number 5). Jeff Green is a great talent with tremendous skills and athleticism, but he's no Oden or Durant. Yi is a complete unknown. They say he could be the next Dirk, but he could just as easily be the next Tskitishvili. Either way, he's going to take at least two years to develop and by then Pierce will be long gone. Al Hortford is an NBA ready player with good agility and tenacity, but not quite enough size. He can be a 13 and 8 type starter, but can he be a 20 and 10 All-Star? I doubt it. Joakim Noah is a very unique player. His passion, as well as his defense and ability to run the floor, translate well to the League, but does his slender frame and raw offensive set? Is his odd body type going to fit in the NBA as well as Tayshaun Price's has, or will he be crushed by the strength of the NBA - do the C's have the luxury of taking that risk? Finally, Corey Brewer. I think he's the best fit for the Celtics. A long, hard-nosed, defensive 2 or 3 with significant offensive upside. I don't think he'll ever be an All-Star, but I do think he will be a signifant piece of an NBA championship puzzle some day.

As you can see the C's basically have only 7 players (one draft pick) who would ever be useful on a championsip roster: Pierce, Al Jeff, West, Rondo, Gomes, Scala and Brewer ( or another number 5 pick). The main and underlying problem however, is that Pierce - the team's best player - will be long gone by the time the team gets any good. That means that the team can't wait for Rondo and their draft pick to develop into champioship-caliber players. They must trade the pick. However, here again they run into trouble. Number 5 is not a particularly valuable pick. Let's say the C's package number 5, Theo Ratliff's contract, and Gerald Green, what can thet get in return? KG? No. Amare? No. Gasol? No (remember Memphis wanted nothing less than Deng, and we can't give up anything even close to Luol). Maggette? Maybe. Jermaine O'Neal? Maybe. These are the Celtics' best options. Basically, Boston is stuck with entering '07-08 with either yet another prospect (Brewer maybe), a somewhat soft Al Jeff, a masonary in Rajon Rondo, a 6th man in Gomes, a gimpy and defensively-challenged Wally, a couple of quality backups in Scalabrine, West, Allen and Green (who will still be too green to play any defense our team offense), and a bunch of guys who couldn't even get minutes on the second worst team in basketball, a team that was trying to lose.

OR, they can come into the season with Al Jeff, Corey Maggette (an overrated, overpaid, malcontented, shoot-first wingman) and Pierce and the rest (of course minus Brewer (#5) and Gerald). That team might win 40 games in the hopeless East ... btw, that should be just enough to keep the C's out of the lottery.

Ah, the lottery. It screwed us this year, but in the end it continues to hold our only hope for success. Danny Ainge put all of his eggs in one basket this year and crossed his fingers hoping for either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant (no matter what he tells you). He lost. Even so, his team better hope for better luck in the coming years because it's the only way they can hope to escape the low-lottery (pick 8 to 14) pugatory they're destined for right now. Pierce will either be assuaged by a vetern (Maggette, O'Neil) - who might even put them into the playoffs for the next three years, but never get Boston to a championship ( say hello again to 40 wins) - or he will be faced with yet another "be patient, let them develop into something" project (the number 5 pick) which will force him out of town, looking for a real championship opportunity.

Paul is our hope to success, but we've got a situation in which he'll never be around for that success. The C's, unfortunately, are screwed for the forseeable future ... unless of course we pull a Portland and steal the top draft pick.

Please post your comments on my thoughts, or the Celtics prospects in general.
Thanks,
-MP


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